Der Kreml-Two-Step

MOSKAU – Der Westen sieht die russische Politik häufig als einen auf hoher Ebene angesiedelten Kampf zwischen Liberalen und Konservativen an: Ligatschow und Jakowlew unter Gorbatschow, Reformer und Nationalisten unter Jelzin, Silowiki und Wirtschaftsliberale unter Putin. Er sieht Russland zudem in einer Tradition, in der jeder neue Zar das Erbe seines Vorgängers teilweise verwirft und damit eine politische Tauwetterperiode am Anfang einer neuen Regierungszeit herbeiführt. Chruschtschows Entstalinisierung ist Beweisstück A.

Beide Methoden wurden verwendet, um die Beziehung zwischen Putin und Medwedew zu beschreiben, ihre Dynamik zu verstehen und zu begreifen, was sie für Russland bedeutet. Doch sind die Beobachter nach wie vor unschlüssig.

Medwedew als bloße Marionette Putins abzutun, als verfassungskonforme Brücke zwischen Putins zweiter und dritter präsidialer Amtszeit, wäre sowohl ungerecht als auch falsch. Russlands dritter Präsident hat eine umfassendere Rolle und eine eigenständige Funktion. Wenn man Putin als „Mann der Vergangenheit“ und Medwedew als „Hoffnung für die Zukunft“ darstellt, übertreibt man umgekehrt jedoch die Unterschiede zwischen ihnen und lässt die wichtigeren Faktoren aus, die sie vereinen. Ein besseres analytisches Modell ist vonnöten.

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