Quel va être le choix du tandem Poutine-Medvedev ?

Moscou – Les Occidentaux voient souvent la politique russe comme un combat au niveau le plus élevé entre conservateurs d'une part et réformateurs, libéraux ou progressistes d'autre part : Ligachev contre Yakovlev sous Gorbachev, réformateurs contre nationalistes sous Eltsine, silovikis [fonctionnaires issus de la police, de l'armée ou des services secrets]contre libéraux sous Poutine. Ils pensent également que la tradition politique russe fait que chaque nouveau tsar répudie en partie l'héritage de son prédécesseur, créant une certaine détente au début de chaque nouveau règne. La déstalinisation entreprise par Khrouchtchev en est le meilleur exemple.

Les observateurs ont eu recours à ces deux interprétations pour décrire la relation entre Poutine et Medvedev – pour comprendre sa nature et sa dynamique et ce qu'elle présage pour la Russie. Mais ils restent perplexes.

Reléguer Medvedev au rang de simple marionnette de Poutine, un pont constitutionnel entre le second mandat et le troisième mandat présidentiel éventuel de Poutine est à la fois injuste et inexact. Le troisième président russe a un rôle important et une fonction précise. Réciproquement, qualifier Poutine d'homme du passé et Medvedev d'homme incarnant l'espoir amplifie démesurément leurs différences et omet les facteurs bien plus importants qui les unissent. Il faudrait un meilleur modèle analytique.

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