Paul Lachine

Le monopole du Kremlin en déclin

CAMBRIDGE – Depuis l’arrivée de Vladimir Poutine au pouvoir il y a dix ans, le régime du Kremlin a toujours reposé sur deux piliers�: les forces de sécurité et l’exportation d’énergie. Le régime a établi ce double monopole en supprimant ses rivaux internes et en absorbant leurs biens.

La redistribution d’une partie des bénéfices tirés du prix très élevé de l’énergie a permis au régime d’améliorer le niveau de vie et de se faire apprécier du peuple russe. En outre, la résolution de luttes intestines en usant d’une force disproportionnée a même rassuré les anciens officiers du KGB obsédés par la sécurité.

Cette combinaison carotte/bâton fonctionnait très bien jusqu’à il y a peu. L’absence virtuelle de mécontents en Russie sous Poutine est impressionnante. Mais il ne faut pas se méprendre�: la cote de popularité de Poutine ne repose pas sur sa vigueur, son humour ni son aura mais sur des salaires et des crédits dont les Russes n’avaient jamais profité auparavant. Et du temps que le prix du pétrole augmentait plus vite que les salaires russes, les fonctionnaires haut placés pouvaient toujours se servir grassement.

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