Paul Lachine

克里姆林失败的独裁

坎布里奇——自从弗拉基米尔·普京10年前执政以后,克里姆林政权就一直有赖于两大支柱:安全部队和能源出口。通过镇压国内反对派并吸纳他们的财产,克里姆林政权成功地建立了双重独裁。

重新分配高价能源所带来的部分利润使得克里姆林政权得以改善生活水准,并得到了普通俄国民众的拥戴。在解决国内问题时不成比例地使用暴力甚至消除了时刻关注安全的前克格勃份子的担忧。

直到不久前,这种胡萝卜加大棒的组合还非常有效。普京执政期间几乎没有任何民众示威的现象似乎令人惊叹。但千万不要搞错:普京的这种支持率并不取决于他过人的精力、幽默或者神秘感,而是有赖于俄罗斯以前从未享受过的工资和信贷。而只要油价上涨的速度始终超过工资增长的速度,那么当权者就仍然可以攫取利润的绝大部分。

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