刀尖上的经济

伯克利——从2003年起,我一直在说全球经济陷入了严重的状态失衡,很容易爆发宏观经济灾难,从而导致现代社会最严重的经济危机。2004年以后,我一直在说这场危机一旦爆发,情况可能会在一年之内变得明了:届时我们就能清楚地知道全球经济究竟是能成功地自我修正,还是就此开始进入下降的螺旋。2004-2007年,我认为世界经济灾难能够得到较快解决的观点可能犯了错误:正如已故的鲁迪·多恩布什所说的那样,不可持续的宏观经济失衡状态的持续时间可能超过经济学家(他们令人感动的坚信人类能够理性地进行决策)的想象和预期。

但是在1年前,也就是2007年8月次贷灾难发生后,我的思路逐渐变得清晰。这次危机必须在一年内顺利解决——否则就会带来其他问题。或者各国央行能够以某种方式穿针引线,引导汇率和资产价格回归到某种稳定而且可以持续的平衡状态,或者金融市场的混乱和破坏将会波及到实体经济领域,从而引发一次大规模的全球经济低迷。第二种情况发生的概率远远超过第一种:那就是爆发全球经济危机。

可惜我错了。现在,整整一年之后,局势仍然在刀尖上维持着一种微妙的平衡。

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