Paul Lachine

La fine del periodo di esuberanza della Cina

MILANO – Dal 2010 la crescita della Cina è rallentata in modo considerevole e potrebbe addirittura rallentare ulteriormente; una prospettiva che investitori e mercati stanno millantando anche oltre i confini cinesi. Dato che gran parte dei motori tradizionali dell’economia globale, come gli Stati Uniti, sono fermi, la performance economica della Cina sta diventando sempre più importante.

Ciò nonostante, al momento il tasso di crescita delle esportazioni cinesi e gli indici relativi dell’industria manifatturiera sono diminuiti in gran parte a causa della debolezza della domanda esterna, in particolar modo in Europa. D’altro canto, le autorità cinesi stanno ora ridimensionando l’altro importante motore della crescita del paese, ovvero gli investimenti nel settore pubblico, in quanto i progetti a basso profitto creano apparentemente domanda aggregata, ma si rilevano quasi subito insostenibili.

Il governo cinese sta poi usando una serie di strumenti, compresa una politica di rigore sul credito nel settore finanziario, per tenere a freno la domanda degli investimenti. Fondamentalmente, il governo sta revocando la garanzia sugli investimenti finanziari nel settore pubblico, così come dovrebbe essere.

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