Paul Lachine

La fin de l’exubérance en Chine

MILAN – La croissance chinoise a considérablement ralenti depuis 2010, et pourrait bien fléchir encore davantage – une perspective qui secoue les investisseurs et les marchés bien au-delà des frontières du pays. Or, la plupart des moteurs de l’économie mondiale – comme les États-Unis –étant au point mort, la performance chinoise revêt de plus en plus d’importance.

Le taux de croissance actuel des exportations chinoises ainsi que des indices s’y rattachant en matière de fabrication sont néanmoins en baisse, principalement en raison d’une faible demande extérieure, notamment en Europe. Par ailleurs, les autorités chinoises procèdent désormais à une réduction des dépenses portant sur un autre moteur majeur de la croissance du pays – à savoir l’investissement du secteur public – dans la mesure où un certain nombre de projets à faible rendement, certes générateurs de demande globale, se révèlent rapidement peu viables.

Le gouvernement recourt ainsi à tout un ensemble d’outils, parmi lesquels la discipline du crédit au secteur financier, afin de freiner la demande d’investissement. En clair, la garantie de l’État associée au financement de l’investissement du secteur public ne s’applique plus – comme cela devrait être le cas.

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