El remedio keynesiano

BERKELEY. Todavía no es seguro que la economía mundial esté condenada a vivir una recesión sustancial en los siguientes tres años, más o menos: aún podemos escapar. Sin embargo, los gobiernos deben ir a la segura tomando ya más medidas que amortigüen, suavicen y acorten el periodo de alto desempleo y crecimiento lento o negativo que ahora parece muy probable.

Es un hecho de la naturaleza –al menos de la humana- que las políticas prudentes y apropiadas de hoy después parezcan excesivas. En algún momento la economía mundial empezará otra vez a expandirse rápidamente. Pero sería muy imprudente asumir que ese momento ha llegado y que las cosas no pueden empeorar.

Tal vez la mejor manera de ver la situación sea recordar las tres locomotoras que han impulsado la economía mundial en los últimos quince años. La primera fue la de las grandes inversiones, centradas en Estados Unidos, debidas a la revolución de la tecnología de la información. La segunda fue la inversión inmobiliaria, otra vez centrada en Estados Unidos, impulsada por la expansión de la vivienda. La tercera fue la inversión manufacturera en otras partes del mundo –predominantemente en Asia- a medida que Estados Unidos se fue convirtiendo en el importador de último recurso de la economía mundial.

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