Une cure keynésienne

BERKELEY amp#45;amp#45; Il n'est pas encore certain que le monde soit condamné à une forte récession dans les trois ans à venir, nous pouvons encore y échapper. Pour cela, il faudrait que les différents pays prennent des mesures plus énergiques pour amortir la montée du chômage, raccourcir sa durée, ainsi que celle de la période de fléchissement de la croissance, voire de régression, qui nous guette.

Du fait de la nature humaine, les mesures avisées et appropriées prises aujourd'hui sembleront sans doute excessives vues dans quelques années, car à moment donné la croissance reprendra. Mais il serait imprudent de croire que ce revirement a déjà eu lieu et que la situation ne va pas empirer. La meilleure façon de la considérer est peut-être d'avoir présent à l'esprit les trois locomotives de l'économie mondiale depuis 15 ans : des investissements importants - essentiellement aux USA - dans les technologies de l'information en raison de la révolution dans ce secteur, l'investissement immobilier - également centré sur les USA en raison du développement de ce marché dans ce pays - et enfin les investissements industriels ailleurs dans le monde - notamment en Asie - tandis que les USA sont devenus les importateurs de dernier recours.

Depuis 15 ans, ces trois locomotives ont permis de maintenir une croissance rapide et le quasi plein emploi. Avec la fin du boom des nouvelles technologies en 2000, la Réserve fédérale a orchestré son remplacement par le boom immobilier, tandis que les investissements en Asie destinés à l'approvisionnement du marché américain ont ralenti.

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