凯恩斯主义的解决方法

伯克利——世界经济将在今后三年左右时间里陷入大规模衰退并非不可避免:我们或许还能逃过此劫。但政府必须立即开始采取行动减轻、缓和并缩短高失业区间,缩短现在看起来很有可能发生的增长放缓或者负增长状况的延续长度。

但是自然界的事实是——至少人性的事实是——如今看起来明智合宜的政策如果在今后看来恐怕有过度之嫌。在某个时刻,世界经济将重新开始快速增长。但认定否极泰来的转折点已经来临恐怕却是再轻率不过的观点。

也许衡量局势的最佳方法是回顾过去15年中是哪三架火车头推动了世界经济向前发展。首先是以美国为中心的大规模投资,而信息技术革命则是大规模投资诞生的源泉。其次是仍以美国为中心的住房投资,而房屋市场繁荣则是住宅投资强劲的驱动力量。第三是世界其他地方的制造业投资——亚洲是制造业投资主要的集中地——而美国则成为世界经济最后的进口源泉。

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