Pedro Molina

Una nueva contienda entre Keynes y Hayek

LONDRES - El economista austriaco Friedrich von Hayek, que murió en 1992 a la edad de 93 años, dijo una vez que quien desee tener la última palabra sólo tiene que sobrevivir a sus oponentes. Su gran fortuna fue sobrevivir a Keynes por casi 50 años, y por tanto reclamar una victoria póstuma sobre un rival que lo había embestido intelectualmente cuando estaba vivo

La apoteosis de Hayek ocurrió en la década de 1980, cuando la primera ministro británica Margaret Thatcher llegó a citar Camino de servidumbre (1944), su ataque clásico a la planificación central. Sin embargo, en economía nunca hay sentencias definitivas. Si bien la defensa de Hayek del sistema de mercado contra la ineficiencia de la planificación central fue ganando cada vez más partidarios, la opinión de Keynes de que los sistemas de mercado requieren una estabilización continua persistió en los ministerios de finanzas y bancos centrales.

Sin embargo, ambas tradiciones fueron eclipsados por la escuela de Chicago de "expectativas racionales", que ha prevalecido en la economía dominante en los últimos veinticinco años. Si los agentes económicos supuestamente poseen información perfecta sobre todas las contingencias posibles, nunca podrían suceder crisis del sistema, excepto como resultado de accidentes y sorpresas más allá del alcance de la teoría económica.

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