Pedro Molina

Odvetný zápas mezi Keynesem a Hayekem

LONDÝN – Rakouský ekonom Friedrich von Hayek, který zemřel v roce 1992 ve věku 93 let, jednou poznamenal, že k tomu, aby měl člověk poslední slovo, stačí jediné: přežít své odpůrce. Jeho velkým štěstím bylo, že přežil Keynese téměř o 50 let, takže mohl zaznamenat posmrtné vítězství nad rivalem, který ho za života intelektuálně rozcupoval.

Hayekova apoteóza přišla v 80. letech, kdy se tehdejší britská premiérka Margaret Thatcherová uchýlila k citaci z jeho knihy Cesta do otroctví (1944), jež představovala klasický útok na centrální plánování. V ekonomii však nikdy neexistují konečné verdikty. Hayekova obrana tržního systému před hrubou neefektivitou centrálního plánování si sice získávala stále větší souhlas, ale na ministerstvech financí a v centrálních bankách přetrvával Keynesův názor, že tržní systém vyžaduje ustavičnou stabilizaci.

Obě tradice nicméně zastínila chicagská škola „racionálních očekávání“, která posledních pětadvacet let dominuje ekonomice hlavního proudu. Protože ekonomičtí aktéři údajně disponují dokonalými informacemi o všech možných eventualitách, systémové krize nikdy nemohou nastat jinak než jako výsledek nešťastných náhod a překvapení, které jsou mimo dosah ekonomické teorie.

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