Pedro Molina

凯恩斯-哈耶克重上擂台

发自伦敦——奥地利经济学家弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克曾说,在论战中战胜对手的唯一方式就是活得比对方命长,他也身体力行,最终在1992年以93岁高龄谢世。而哈翁最幸运的地方莫过于比对手凯恩斯多活了近50年,虽然后者在世时在学术上对他大肆抨击,但他却最终赢得了一场后发制人的胜利。

哈耶克于1944年出版了批判中央计划体制的经典之作《通往奴役之路》,而当时任英国首相的撒切尔夫人在1980年代引用书中某些观点时,他的声誉也随之到达了顶峰。但在经济学永远没有定局。当哈耶克指出中央计划臃肿低效,并以此为市场辩护的理论日渐流行之时,凯恩斯认为市场需要持续干预以保持稳定的观点则得到了各国财政部和中央银行的认同。

但这两大流派都在芝加哥学派“理性预期”理论的光芒下黯然失色,后者在过去25年内统治了整个主流经济学界。该理论认为只要所有经济部门都能充分了解所有可能出现的突发事件,那么除非出现某些超出现有经济学理论范畴之外的意外事件,否则系统性危机永远不会发生。

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