失业的威胁

纽约——最近的数据显示,美国和其他发达经济体的就业市场情况尚未好转。美国目前失业率为9.5%,预计到今年秋季超过10%,2010年见顶,达到11%,之后相当长一段时间维持在10%以上。其他发达经济体的失业率大多也将超10%。

上述失业率的初步数据已经够严峻了,可实际上它们还是 低估了 世界劳动力市场的疲软状况。比方说,如果把非全日制雇工和就业意愿丧失者(discouraged workers)也计算在内,美国的失业率就会高达16.5%。各国的货币和财政刺激,大多对缓解失业压力作用寥寥。其结果是,劳动力总和收入——工作岗位数乘以工作小时数乘以每小时平均工资——下降的幅度很大。

此外,为了找人分担经济衰退的痛苦,也为了尽量避免裁员,许多雇主都试图让员工接受缩短工时和削减每小时工资的办法。例如,英国航空(British Airways)居然号召员工无偿劳动整整一个月。综合考虑此次衰退所造成的就业、工时和工资缩减,其对劳动力收入的总体影响比单单考虑失业要大得多。

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