Der Mythos Japan

BRÜSSEL – Das erste Jahrzehnt dieses Jahrhunderts begann mit der so genannten Dotcom-Blase. Als sie platzte, verlegten sich die Zentralbanken auf eine aggressive Lockerung der  Geldpolitik, um eine lange Phase langsamen Wachstums im Stile Japans zu vermeiden. Allerdings trug die lang anhaltende Phase niedriger Zinssätze nach der Rezession 2001 zur Entwicklung einer weiteren Blase bei, diesmal im Immobilien- und Kreditbereich.

Nach dem Bersten der zweiten Blase innerhalb eines Jahrzehnts reagierten die Zentralbanken fast überall erneut rasch mit der Senkung der Zinssätze auf Null (oder fast Null). Vor kurzem läutete die amerikanische Notenbank Federal Reserve sogar eine beispiellose „quantitative Lockerung“ ein, um die Erholung zu beschleunigen. Wieder lautete das Argument, dass man die Wiederholung eines „verlorenen Jahrzehnts“ wie in Japan vermeiden wolle.

Die politische Entscheidungsfindung ist oftmals von einfachen „Lehren“ aus der  Wirtschaftsgeschichte geleitet. Aber die Lehre aus dem Fall Japan ist größtenteils ein Mythos. Die Grundlage für die Schauergeschichten über Japan ist,  dass das BIP-Wachstum in den letzten zehn Jahren im Schnitt bei jährlich nur 0,6 Prozent lag, während die USA einen Wert von 1,7 Prozent aufwiesen. Die Differenz ist in Wirklichkeit viel geringer als oftmals angenommen, aber auf den ersten Blick geht eine Wachstumsrate von 0,6  Prozent als verlorenes Jahrzehnt durch.

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