Der IT Boom war nur in Europa ein Mythos

Amerikas Wirtschaft verharrt noch am Rand einer doppelt tiefen Rezession. Der Dollar ist schwach und die Wall Street will sich nicht erholen. Braut sich ein apokalyptisches Szenarium zusammen? Wohl kaum! Die US-Wirtschaft, daran sollte man denken, schloss das Jahr 2002 mit einem Jahreswachstum von 2.5% ab - und lag damit über dem langfristigen Trend, den viele Fachleute auch die Europäischen Zentralen Bank für das Euro-Gebiet für möglich halten.

Der Punkt ist, dass die USA trotz der Exzesse von 1999 - 2000, trotz der wirtschaftlichen Schwierigkeiten der letzten beiden Jahre und der Neigung, den Technologieboom der 1990er Jahre bloß für einen Reklamerummel zu halten, während dieses Jahrzehntes tief greifende strukturelle Veränderungen durchgemacht haben. Ihr Produktivitäts-Wachstum hat sich fast verdoppelt, es wuchs von etwas über 1 % im Zeitraum 1990-95 auf über 2 % in den Jahren 1995-2000. Zudem sehen wir keine Anzeichen für eine Verlangsamung: In den Jahren 2001 - 02 ergab sich ein Produktivitäts-Wachstum von im Durchschnitt fast 3 %.

Die Informationstechnologie (IT) verbuchte nahezu 80 % des Produktivitätszuwachses für sich. Auch ist der Produktivitätszuwachs keine vorübergehende, sondern eine nachhaltige Erscheinung, weil ein Großteil der jüngsten technologischen Fortschritte, die wir in den USA erlebt haben, noch darauf wartet, ausgeschöpft zu werden. Im Hinblick auf die Zukunft ist das von entscheidender Bedeutung, weil das langfristige wirtschaftliche Wohlergehen eines jeden Landes von einem stetigen Produktivitätswachstum abhängt.

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