Les irrépressibles années 30

LONDRES – Le tout dernier sommet du G20 à Séoul s’est terminé sans qu’aucun accord n’ait été conclu ni sur les monnaies ni sur le commerce. La Chine et les Etats-Unis se sont mutuellement accusés de manipuler délibérément la monnaie pour gagner en avantage commercial. Le Cycle de Doha de discussions sur le commerce global est à l’arrêt. Et, tandis que les débats sur les «amp#160;risquesamp#160;» d’une nouvelle guerre des monnaies et du commerce vont bon train, ces guerres ont d’ors et déjà débuté.

Donc, et malgré les dires de l’ensemble des dirigeants globaux prétendant le contraire, il semble que l’inquiétant précédent protectionniste des années 30 se ranime. Les hostilités commerciales de cette décennie-la furent lancées par les Etats-Unis avec le Smoot-Hawley tariff de 1930. Les Britanniques répondirent avec le Import Duties Act de 1932, suivi du Imperial Preference. Bientôt l’économie mondiale était parsemée de barrières commerciales.

La Grande Bretagne dégainât la première dans la guerre des monnaies des années 30 en abandonnant la convertibilité-or en septembre 1931. Les Etats-Unis avaient répondu en la quittant en avril 1933. La livre sterling chutât par rapport au dollar, puis le dollar par rapport à la livre sterling.

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