La guerra del Iraq diez años después

CAMBRIDGE – Este mes se cumple el décimo aniversario de la polémica invasión del Iraq, encabezada por los Estados Unidos. ¿Qué consecuencias ha tenido esa decisión a lo largo del último decenio? Y, lo que es más importante, ¿fue una decisión correcta la de invadir el Iraq?

En el lado positivo, los analistas señalan el derrocamiento de Sadam Husein, la creación de un gobierno democráticamente elegido y una economía que crece al nueve por ciento al año, con unas exportaciones de petróleo que superan el nivel anterior a la guerra. Algunos, como, por ejemplo, Nadim Shehadi, de Chatham House, van más lejos, al sostener que, si bien “no cabe duda de que los EE.UU. abarcaron más de lo que podían apretar en el Iraq”, su intervención “puede que  sacudiera la región para sacarla de un estancamiento que ha marcado la vida de al menos dos generaciones”.

Los escépticos replican que sería un error vincular la guerra del Iraq a la “primavera árabe”, porque los acontecimientos habidos en Túnez y Egipto en 2011 tuvieron sus propios orígenes, mientras que las acciones y la retórica del Presidente George W. Bush desacreditaron la causa de la democracia en esa región, en lugar de hacerla avanzar. Derribar a Sadam fue importante, pero el Iraq es ahora un país violento gobernado por un grupo sectario, con un índice de corrupción correspondiente al puesto 169º de entre 174 países.

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