El mundo en 2030

CAMBRIDGE – ¿Cómo será el mundo dentro de dos decenios? Evidentemente, nadie lo sabe, pero algunas cosas son más probables que otras. Las empresas y los gobiernos tienen que hacer conjeturas con conocimiento de causa, porque algunas de las inversiones de hoy durarán más de veinte años. En diciembre, el Consejo Nacional de Inteligencia de los Estados Unidos (CNI) publicó la suya: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (“Tendencias mundiales 2030: otros mundos”).

El CNI prevé un mundo transformado, en el que “ningún país –ni los EE.UU. ni China ni ningún otro país grande– será una potencia hegemónica”. Es el reflejo de cuatro “megatendencias”: adquisición de poder por parte de los individuos y aumento de una clase media mundial; difusión del poder de los Estados por redes y coaliciones oficiosas; cambios demográficos, debidos a la urbanización, la migración y el envejecimiento; y una mayor demanda de alimentos, agua y energía.

Cada una de dichas tendencias está cambiando el mundo e “invirtiendo en gran medida el ascenso histórico de Occidente desde 1750, restableciendo la importancia de Asia en la economía mundial y dando paso a una nueva era de ‘democratización’ en los niveles nacional e internacional”. Los EE.UU. seguirán siendo los “primeros entre iguales” en poder duro y blando, pero “el ‘momento de la ‘unipolaridad’ se ha acabado”.

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