2030年的世界

剑桥——20年后世界将会怎样?显然这个问题没有人能回答,但发生某些情况的概率较高。企业和政府必须根据现有情况作出猜测,因为今天的某些投资将会延续到20年以后。12月,美国国家情报委员会(NIC)发表了题为《全球趋势2030:另类世界》的预测报告。

国家情报委员会预测未来世界将脱胎换骨,“无论美、中还是其他大国,任何国家都不能再成为霸权力量。”这是以下四大“趋势”的体现:个人授权和全球中产阶级成长;国家权力分散到非正式的网络和联盟;城市化、移民和老龄化造成的人口结构变化;以及日益增长的粮食、水及能源需求。

各项趋势都在改变世界,并“在很大程度上逆转1750年以来西方的历史性崛起,恢复亚洲在全球经济中所占的地位,并在国际和国内迎来‘民主化’的新时代。”美国仍将在硬实力和软实力两方面首当其冲,但是“‘单极时代’已经不复存在。”

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