El retrasado ajuste de cuentas de la zona del euro

NUEVA YORK – Los riesgos que afronta la zona del euro se han reducido desde el verano, cuando la salida de Grecia parecía inminente y los costos del endeudamiento de España e Italia alcanzaron nuevos niveles insostenibles, pero, si bien han disminuido las tensiones financieras, las condiciones económicas en la periferia de la zona del euro siguen siendo precarias.

Varios factores explican la reducción de los riesgos. Para empezar, el programa de “transacciones monetarias directas” del Banco Central Europeo ha sido increíblemente eficaz: los márgenes de los tipos de interés de España e Italia se han reducido en unos 250 puntos básicos, aun antes de que se gastara un solo euro para comprar bonos estatales. La introducción del Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad (MEDE), que aporta otros 500 millones de euros (650 millones de dólares) para sostener los bancos y las deudas soberanas, también ha ayudado, como también el reconocimiento por los dirigentes europeos de que una unión monetaria por sí sola es inestable e incompleta, pues requiere una integración bancaria, fiscal y política más profunda.

Pero tal vez lo más importante es que la actitud de Alemania para con la zona del euro en general y Grecia en particular ha cambiado. Los funcionarios alemanes entienden ahora que, dados los amplios vínculos comerciales y financieros existentes, una zona del euro desordenada no sólo perjudica a la periferia, sino también al centro. Han dejado de hacer declaraciones públicas sobre una posible salida de Grecia y acaban de apoyar un tercer plan de rescate para este país. Mientras España e Italia sigan siendo vulnerables, un desplome griego podría desencadenar un grave contagio antes de las elecciones alemanas del año próximo, lo que pondría en peligro las posibilidades de la Canciller Angela Merkel de conseguir otro mandato. Así, pues, Alemania seguirá financiando a Grecia de momento.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/mWV1F4x/es;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.