欧元区远未走出基本面危机

纽约——今年夏天,眼看希腊退伙迫在眉睫,西班牙、意大利的发债成本达到不可持续的新高度,欧元区所面临的风险可谓登峰造极。从那以后,这风险已有所减轻。但是,尽管紧绷的金融之弦略有放松,欧元区边缘国家的经济状况却依然危如累卵。

有几个因素使得风险减轻。首先,欧洲央行的“直接货币交易”(OMTs)计划效果好得出奇:甚至在任何购债交易都还没有发生之前,西班牙和意大利国债的利率差就降了差不多250个基点。引入欧洲稳定机制(ESM)又将支持银行和国家信用的资金规模扩大了5000亿欧元(6500亿美元),也有助于减轻风险。正如欧洲领导人所承认的,单单货币联盟是不稳定和不完整的,更深刻的银行、财政、经济和政治一体化是必要的。

但最重要的因素也许在于,德国对欧元区、特别是对希腊的态度已经发生了转变。如今,德国官员理解到,鉴于欧元区各国之间存在广泛的贸易与金融联系,欧元区的无序不仅会伤害边缘国家,也会伤害核心国家。他们不再公开谈论希腊退出欧元区的可能性,而且新近支持了为希腊支付的第三笔“赎金”。只要西班牙和意大利的困难一日得不到缓解,希腊的冲击就会在德国明年大选之前引发严重的连锁反应,威胁德国总理默克尔连任。所以,德国在一段时间内将继续资助希腊。

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