¿Cambio de régimen en China?

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – Una pregunta que se debería haber planteado acerca de la transición de la cúpula del Partido Comunista Chino, que acaba de realizarse, es si este elaborado ejercicio de coreografía podría haberse equiparado a reordenar las sillas de la cubierta del Titanic. A fin de cuentas, es posible que la instalación de nuevos dirigentes resulte poco importante si el fin del régimen del PCCh resulta tan previsible como probable.

A muchos observadores esta afirmación les podría resultar sorprendente. El PCCh, insisten, ha demostrado su capacidad de recuperación desde la crisis de Tiananmen en 1989 y el colapso del comunismo soviético en 1991. ¿Por qué habrían de tomarse en serio ahora las predicciones sobre su caída?

Si bien el futuro de China es impredecible, es posible estimar con cierto nivel de confianza la capacidad de duración de su régimen post-totalitario. Puede que China sea única en muchos sentidos, pero su régimen unipartidista no es muy excepcional. De hecho, su orden político sufre la misma dinámica autodestructiva que ha sepultado a innumerables regímenes autocráticos.

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