Regimewechsel in China?

CLAREMONT, KALIFORNIEN – Der gerade beendete Führungswechsel der Kommunistischen Partei Chinas (KPC) wirft eine Frage auf: Ist es möglich, dass die ganze, kunstvoll inszenierte Zeremonie vergleichbar ist mit einer Neuanordnung der Stühle an Bord der Titanic? Wenn das Ende der Staatspartei sowohl absehbar als auch sehr wahrscheinlich ist, könnte das Einsetzen einer neuen Führung ziemlich bedeutungslos sein.

Viele Beobachter würden diese Überzeugung schockierend finden. Sie sind der Ansicht, angesichts der Tiananmen-Krise 1989 und beim Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion 1991 habe die KPC ihre Widerstandsfähigkeit hinreichend bewiesen. Warum sollten Vorhersagen über den Zusammenbruch der Partei gerade jetzt ernst genommen werden?

Auch wenn die Zukunft China völlig offen ist: Wie lang das posttotalitäre Regimes des Landes noch fortbesteht, kann mit einiger Sicherheit geschätzt werden. China mag in vielerlei Hinsicht einmalig sein, aber seine Einparteienregierung ist es keineswegs. Vielmehr leidet die politische Ordnung des Landes unter derselben selbstzerstörerischen Dynamik, die bereits unzählige autokratische Regimes unter sich begraben hat.

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