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تغيير النظام في الصين؟

Dec 13, 2012 Minxin Pei

كليرمونت، كاليفورنيا ــ إن السؤال الذي كان ينبغي لنا أن نطرحه فيما يتصل بانتقال الزعامة الذي تم للتو في الحزب الشيوعي الصيني هو ما إذا كانت هذه الممارسة بالكامل أشبه بإعادة ترتيب المقاعد على سطح السفينة تايتانيك. إن تنصيب زعامة جديدة قد لا يشكل أهمية كبيرة إذا كانت نهاية الحزب الشيوعي الصيني منظورة ومحتملة تماما.

لعل العديد من المراقبين يجدون مثل هذا اليقين صادما. فهم يصرون على أن الحزب الشيوعي الصيني أثبت قدرته على الصمود منذ أزمة ميدان السلام السماوي في عام 1989 وانهيار الاتحاد السوفييتي عام 1991. فلماذا نأخذ التوقعات بانهيار حكم الحزب الشيوعي الصيني على محمل الجد الآن؟

رغم أن لا أحد يستطيع أن يتنبأ بمستقبل الصين، فإن قدرة نظام ما بعد الاستبداد على البقاء هناك يمكن تخمين حجمها ببعض اليقين. فقد تكون الصين فريدة من نوعها في نواح كثيرة، ولكن حكم الحزب الواحد ليس حالة استثنائية على الإطلاق. الواقع أن النظام السياسي في الصين يعاني من نفس الديناميكيات الذاتية التدمير التي أرسلت عدداً لا يحصى من الأنظمة الاستبدادية إلى حتفها.

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Jonathan Lam Dec 17, 2012

Gamesmith94134: Regime Change in China?
I am not sure what would be the best of the democracy; but in the dedication of the socialism and capitalism, I found no supremacy of the ideologue that benefits all, it is sad that many suffer. I
n term of autocracy verses oligarchy, the result is just the same. I see Mr. Pei is holding the crutch on the Tiananmen Square, 1989 that CCP is doomed; but what is the bipartisan resolution doing now for our fiscal cliff? Or how Mr. Deng had made the exception to the rules to CCP? He claimed the better cat that catches the mouse, it is not a work of a white cat or black cat; and I agree. It may not just how the gift wrap may present, I rather like to see the fruition of the one’s action than how or which one is favored.
“It ‘s a Horse, of course.” Regime changes just like anyone else.
I am not a communist, and I am a Buddhist.
May the Buddha bless you?
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Shane Beck Dec 14, 2012

Not a chance- as long as the Chinese Communist Party has control of the PLA its continued rule is assured. The only time you get regime change is if the military is neutral or gets co-opted by revolutionary forces.
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Jeff GE Dec 14, 2012

Dogmatic belief and wishful thinking is not substitute for reality based analysis. Professor Pei still holds too hard on his belief that China's one-party rule will fail soon, no matter what.
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تغيير النظام في الصين؟

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