Индийская черепаха и китайский заяц

В этом году Индия была главной темой Всемирного экономического форума. На Западе столько внимания уделяется Китаю, что достижения Индии часто признают со значительным опозданием. И, как если бы для того, чтобы подчеркнуть, что политическая стабильность одержит верх в долгосрочной перспективе, индийцы оклеили швейцарские автобусы баннерами с надписью: «Индия - самая быстро растущая в мире демократия».

Рекламная акция Индии имела огромный успех. В Давосе один выступающий за другим развивал идею, что несмотря на то, что Китай сегодня обгоняет Индию в развитии, в долгосрочной перспективе шансы на победу в этом соревновании между двумя азиатскими гигантами равны. По крайней мере в течение нескольких дней появление Индии как супердержавы наравне с Китаем воспринималось как свершившийся факт. Но какова реальная ситуация в гонке между экономиками, каждая из которых насчитывает более миллиарда человек?

С первого взгляда может показаться, что Китай имеет значительное преимущество перед Индией. Двадцать пять лет назад в начале современной волны глобализации общий объем продукции, производимой Индией и Китаем был приблизительно одинаковым. Сегодня по любым меркам Китай вдвое богаче.

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