中印之间的龟兔赛跑

“印度无处不在”是今年世界经济论坛的主题。在西方,对中国的关注如此巨大,以至于把印度的成就仅仅视为事后的想法。好像是为了突出强调从长远看政治稳定必然获胜,印度人把瑞士的公共汽车上涂满了这样的横幅:“印度:世界上成长最快的民主国家。”

有关印度的媒体轰炸成效显著。在达沃斯,发言者们异口同声地说,即使中国现在领先,从长远来看,亚洲两大巨人的竞赛胜负难料。至少在几天内,印度崛起成为与中国平起平坐的超级大国被看作了是一个既成事实。但是,在这两个人口都超过10亿人的经济体之间的竞赛的事实又是如何呢?

从表面上看,中国大大领先于印度。25年前,当代全球化浪潮方兴未艾,中印两国的国民产量几乎相等。现在,无论用哪种标准衡量,中国都是两倍于印度的富有。

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