Acciones para reequilibrar la economía

LONDRES – Todos sabemos cómo empezó la crisis económica global. Los bancos ofrecieron demasiados créditos al mercado inmobiliario. El estallido subsiguiente de la burbuja inmobiliaria en los Estados Unidos provocó la quiebra de los bancos porque la actividad bancaria se había hecho global y los grandes bancos tenían créditos malos mutuos. La quiebra de la banca originó una crisis de crédito. El crédito se agotó  y las economías empezaron a contraerse.

Así pues, los gobiernos rescataron a los bancos y las economías, lo que produjo una crisis soberana de deuda. Como todos están concentrados en el desapalancamiento, las economías no se han recuperado. Gran parte del mundo, sobre todo Europa, pero también los Estados Unidos, aunque menos seriamente, sigue estancado en prácticamente un bache.

Entonces, ¿cómo salimos de este bache? El debate conocido trata de austeridad y estímulo. Los partidarios de la austeridad piensan que solo el equilibrio de los presupuestos públicos y la reducción de las deudas nacionales restablecerán la confianza de los inversionistas. Los keynesianos piensan que sin un programa grande de estímulo fiscal  –un aumento deliberado pero temporal del déficit– las economías europeas y estadounidenses seguirán sumidas en la recesión en los siguientes años.

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