Economías en desarrollo y déficit financiero de largo plazo

WASHINGTON, DC – Desde que se desató la crisis financiera global, la «banca» se ha convertido prácticamente en una mala palabra. Pero, aunque los bancos indudablemente tienen capacidad para infligir graves daños a las economías y el sustento de las personas, un sistema financiero bien administrado puede ofrecer importantes beneficios. Un creciente cuerpo de evidencia, resaltado en el reciente Informe sobre el desarrollo financiero mundial del Grupo del Banco Mundial, muestra que las instituciones y los mercados financieros tienen una profunda influencia sobre el desarrollo económico, el alivio de la pobreza y la estabilidad de las economías en todo el mundo, y que se justifica una evaluación pragmática del rol del estado en las finanzas.

Entre los aspectos visibles, la característica más inusual de la crisis financiera en curso es que las economías desarrolladas se han visto afectadas mucho más dura y directamente que las economías en desarrollo, muchas de las cuales han aprendido de crisis anteriores, ordenado su situación fiscal, avanzado en las reformas estructurales, y mejorado la supervisión y la regulación.

Pero esta distinción pierde de vista una cuestión más importante: la calidad de las políticas es mucho más importante que el nivel de desarrollo económico. Algunos sistemas financieros en las economías desarrolladas –por ejemplo en Australia, Canadá y Singapur–han mostrado una capacidad de recuperación encomiable, mientras que otros están en problemas.

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