Die Politik eines langsameren Chinas

SINGAPUR – Der kürzliche finanzielle Aufruhr in China mit Interbankenzinssätzen, die sich innerhalb von Tagen verdoppelten, bestätigt erneut, dass die weltweit zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft auf eine harte Landung zu steuert. Infolge massiven Kreditwachstums (in Höhe von 30% des BIP von 2008 bis 2012) hat die chinesische Wirtschaft den höchsten Verschuldungsgrad aller Schwellenländer erreicht. Dies wird nicht gut ausgehen.

Tatsächlich folgt aus einer aktuelle Studie von Nomura Securities, dass Chinas finanzielles Risikoprofil heute demjenigen von Thailand, Japan, Spanien und der Vereinigten Staaten zu ihren jeweils größten Krisenzeiten entspricht. Alle krisengeschüttelten Volkswirtschaften hatten kurz vor dem Platzen ihrer Kreditblasen ihren Verschuldungsgrad – das Verhältnis der Inlandskredite zum BIP – über fünf Jahre um 30 Prozentpunkte erhöht.

Ökonomen, die Chinas Fremdfinanzierungsrate nicht für zu hoch halten, sind stark in der Minderheit. Die chinesische Zentralbank jedenfalls, die im Juni zwecks Beschränkung des Kreditwachstums eine Kreditklemme eingeleitet hat, scheint zu glauben, dass der Fremdfinanzierungsgrad ein gefährliches Ausmaß erreicht hat. Die einzigen Fragen, die nun zu beantworten sind, handeln davon, wann und wie der Kreditabbau vonstatten gehen wird.

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