Politika zpomalující Číny

SINGAPUR – Nedávný finanční zmatek v Číně, kde se sazby mezibankovních půjček vyšplhaly během několika dnů na dvojciferné hodnoty, představuje další potvrzení, že druhá největší ekonomika světa směřuje k tvrdému přistání. Čínská ekonomika dosáhla za přispění mohutného růstu objemu úvěrů (který se od roku 2008 do roku 2012 rovnal 30% HDP) takové úrovně finančního zadlužení, že dnes patří k nejvyšším mezi rozvíjejícími se trhy. Tohle neskončí dobře.

Společnost Nomura Securities v nedávné studii zjišťuje, že čínský profil finančních rizik dnes zlověstně připomíná profily Thajska, Japonska, Španělska a Spojených států v předvečer jejich finančních krizí. Každá z těchto krizemi stižených ekonomik zvýšila během pěti let před prasknutím úvěrové bubliny své finanční zadlužení – poměr domácích úvěrů k HDP – o 30 procentních bodů.

Ekonomové, kteří trvají na tom, že finanční pákový efekt Číny není příliš vysoký, jsou ve stále výraznější menšině. Čínská lidová banka, která v červnu ve snaze odradit růst půjček zorganizovala zmrazení úvěrů, se zjevně domnívá, že se finanční pákový efekt vyšplhal na nebezpečnou úroveň. Nyní už jen zbývá odpovědět na otázky, kdy a jak proběhne oddlužování.

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