Economics

中国减速的政治学

Jul 6, 2013 Minxin Pei

新加坡—最近在中国发生的金融动荡——银行间贷款利率在几天时间里飙升到两位数——进一步确认世界第二大经济体迈向了硬着陆。在大规模信用增长的推动下（2008—2012年间相当于GDP的30%），中国经济的金融杠杆率已是新兴市场之最。这不会有好结果。

事实上，野村证券的一份最新研究发现，当下中国金融风险轮廓与泰国、日本、西班牙和美国在金融危机前夕惊人地相似。所有爆发危机的经济体在信用泡沫破裂前夕的五年中，金融杠杆率——国内信用与GDP之比——都升高了30个百分点。

坚持认为中国金融杠杆率并不太高的经济学家是日渐凋零的少数派。显然，中国人民银行认为金融杠杆已经升到了危险的水平，6月份，为了抑制贷款增长，中国人民银行发动了一次信用紧缩。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 5 Comments on this article

Wong Hoong Hooi Jul 17, 2013

Japan had, for more than a decade, the ingredients which the article writer says will produce disaster for China:
a. Huge debt
b. Stagnating economy
Of course, the stock answer in Western opinion circles is that Japanese society is too disciplined to let the country descend into chaos; just as the stock prediction for China is that economic slowdown will lead to social unrest and loss of legitimacy for the CCP. We need closer objective fresh analysis and not articles written on the basis of the same old stock answers.
- Yoshimichi Moriyama Jul 25, 2013
  
  China has one advantage that Japan lacks. It is in Dr. Pei's words "the regime's enormous capacity for repression." (http://thediplomat.com/2013/07/22/how-much-slowdown-can-beijing-tolerate/?all=true)
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Leo Arouet Jul 14, 2013

Como siempre Minxin Pei con los análisis agudos sobre la política económica de China. Por lo visto, en ese país asiático podría darse una dura recesión como se dio en Occidente. Los líderes chinos deben asumir su papel de tecnócratas eficientemente para poder salvar su economía y sociedad. Por lo demás, la clase media del mundo va a estar a un paso del desborde democrático.

Buen artículo.
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Michael Heller Jul 13, 2013

Excellent article.
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Procyon Mukherjee Jul 8, 2013

The bulk of the debt is held by the Government in China, of which the Central Government, is clearly at a solvent position with 3% of fiscal deficit, at the most. It is the local government which is under pressure as the major source of revenue which is land is no more 'saleable' in the same pace as before. The worrisome factor is the price of land which has outpaced the growth of property prices by a factor of 2 and is clearly nearing the tipping point, this would make the local government balance sheets come under stress.

The debt to revenue ratio of the local governments would determine the pace of infrastructure projects in the future and should be the key statistic to watch out.
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