IMF的下一项使命?

在国际货币基金组织(IMF)几乎已丧失其起初作为世界性中央货币机构而存在的理由的情况下,世界经济正越来越受到来自对全球不平衡的动荡市场反应的威胁。这两种情况都应该激励该组织担当起世界储备管理者的新角色。

在1960年代,IMF管理了所有主要经济体的问题,在1980和1990年代,它发展成为新兴市场的危机管理者。但由于一些新型经济体的巨大体量,这一任务现在变得更为困难。不论如何,财政紧张的焦点正重新转移到世界经济的核心国家,如美国、英国和澳大利亚,它们都以(比它们)贫穷得多的国家的盈余来延续着自己巨额的经常项目下赤字。

这些盈余反映了在产油和新兴的亚洲国家的私有及公共部门的高储蓄率,其结果是快速积累外汇储备。但这对于这些国家而言却并不是件好事。它们的外汇储备变得如此巨大,以至于一个关于资产小幅转换的声明—比如,从欧元到美元—也能震动市场,造成混乱和恐慌。与过去提供资产选择(如,美元、英镑和战争期间的黄金)的储备机制一样,不稳定性是沿袭的。

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