Полушаг МВФ

БОСТОН – «То, что раньше было ересью, теперь считается консерватизмом», ‑ отметил Джон Мейнард Кейнс в 1944 г., оказав помощь в убеждении мировых лидеров в том, что вновь созданный Международный валютный фонд позволит сохранить регулирование международных финансовых потоков как неотъемлемое право государств-членов. Однако к 1970-м гг. МВФ и западные державы начали демонтаж теории и практики регулирования мировых потоков капитала. В 1990-х гг. МВФ дошел до того, что попытался изменить свой Устав для отмены регулирования межгосударственных финансов.

С большой помпой МВФ недавно принял на вооружение новую «институциональную концепцию», которая, вроде бы, предусматривает восстановление регулирования мировых финансов. Несмотря на то что МВФ по-прежнему свято верит в окончательную финансовую либерализацию, теперь он признает, что свободное движение капитала покоится на гораздо более слабом интеллектуальном основании, чем свободная торговля.

В частности, МВФ теперь признает, что для либерализации счетов движения капитала страны должны достигнуть определенного порога в отношении финансовых и управляющих учреждений, и что многие быстроразвивающиеся и развивающиеся страны его не достигли. МВФ признал и более глубокий фактор – существование и рисков, и преимуществ межгосударственных финансовых потоков, в особенности резких вливаний с последующими внезапными остановками, что может вызывать значительную экономическую нестабильность.

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