Der halbe Schritt des IWF

BOSTON – “Was einst Ketzerei war, ist nun als orthodox anerkannt”, meinte John Maynard Keynes im Jahr 1944, nachdem er dazu beigetragen hatte, die führenden Politiker der Welt davon zu überzeugen, dass der Internationale Währungsfonds seinen Mitgliedern weiterhin die Regulierung der internationalen Finanzierungsflüsse als Grundrecht gewähren sollte. In den 1970ern begannen der IWF und die Westmächte allerdings damit, die Regulierung der globalen Kapitalflüsse in Theorie und Praxis abzubauen. Und in den 1990ern versuchte der Fonds sogar, seine Satzung zu ändern, um die Deregulierung grenzüberschreitender Finanzströme zu ermöglichen.

Mit viel Getöse gab der IWF kürzlich eine neue “institutionelle Sichtweise” bekannt, die anscheinend die Neuregulierung der globalen Finanzen befürwortet. Der Fonds bleibt zwar weiterhin der finanziellen Liberalisierung verbunden, erkennt aber jetzt an, dass der freie Kapitalfluss auf einer deutlich schwächeren intellektuellen Grundlage ruht als der freie Handel.

Insbesondere ist der IWF jetzt der Ansicht, dass für eine Kapitalflussliberalisierung die finanziellen und politischen Institutionen der betreffenden Länder gewisse Standards erfüllen müssen, und dies bei vielen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern nicht der Fall ist. Auf grundsätzlicherer Ebene hat der Fonds akzeptiert, dass internationale Finanzflüsse nicht nur Nutzen, sondern auch Risiken mit sich bringen. Dies betrifft insbesondere starke Zuströme und darauf folgende plötzliche Unterbrechungen, die beträchtliche wirtschaftliche Instabilität mit sich bringen können.

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