IMF的放血疗法

阿根廷金融危机于半年前爆发时,我的看法是阿根廷自己要负主要责任。但是,现在我们需要重新考虑一下责任问题。虽然归根结底还是应由阿根廷对自己的命运负责,但是国际货币基金组织也并未起到好的作用。问题不仅仅在于甚至不主要在于国际货币基金组织拖延向阿根廷提供资金,更大的问题在于国际货币基金组织所提的建议乏善可陈。

国际货币基金组织并不明确应该对阿根廷做什么,而只是一味地强调,阿根廷经济危机是由于政府对财政经费挥霍无度造成的,是政府不量入为出的结果。因此它强调阿根廷要削减预算开支。哪怕阿根廷危机进一步恶化,今年的GDP值可能负增长10%~15%,失业人数骤增,国际货币基金组织仍再三要求阿根廷政府削减开支。这就像是18世纪医生们通过放血“治疗”发烧病人的所谓疗法,结果却是使病人病情加重,且常常加速病人的死亡。

富裕国家们自己早在大约70年前的大萧条后便已摒弃了目前国际货币基金组织对阿根廷采取的方法。当时,重大银行及金融危机导致产出骤减(与金本位制崩溃相联系),美国和欧洲的税收锐减,政府试图通过削减预算开支限制预算赤字。然而越是减少支出,产出就越低,经济困境也越深。直到1936年,凯恩斯揭示了在经济不景气时试图平衡预算纯属徒劳无益的道理。

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