Die Illusion einer chinesischen Blase

PEKING – Am Vorabend des chinesischen Neujahrs überraschte die Chinesische Volksbank (People’s Bank of China, PBC) den Markt, indem sie – zum zweiten Mal in Folge innerhalb eines Monats – eine Erhöhung des Mindestreservesatzes der Banken um 50 Basispunkte ankündigte, wodurch er auf 16,5 % stieg. Kurz zuvor leitete die chinesische Regierung Schritte ein, um die Überschuldung der Lokalverwaltungen aufzuhalten (durch staatliche Investitionsgesellschaften vor Ort) und um die überhitzten regionalen Immobilienmärkte abzukühlen, indem sie den Anzahlungsanteil für die Käufer von Zweitwohnungen sowie die Kapitalausstattungsrate für Bauunternehmer anhob.

Diese letzte Runde der geldpolitischen Straffung in China spiegelt die wachsende Besorgnis der Behörden über die Liquidität wider. 2009 erhöhte sich die Geldmenge M2 (ein Schlüsselindikator zur Vorhersage der Inflation) im Vorjahresvergleich um 27 %, und das Kreditwesen wurde um 34 % ausgeweitet. Im Januar 2010 nahm die Kreditvergabe der Banken trotz strenger „Verwaltungskontrollen“ der Finanzkreditlinien (die PBC schrieb kommerziellen Banken tatsächlich Beleihungsgrenzen vor) mit einer Jahresquote von 29 % zu – zusätzlich zu einer bereits starken Ausweitung im gleichen Vorjahreszeitraum. Zwar bleibt die Inflation mit 1,5 % niedrig, doch ist sie in den letzten Monaten gestiegen. Auch die Immobilienpreise sind in den meisten großen Städten in die Höhe geschnellt.

Diese Faktoren haben einige China-Beobachter dazu veranlasst, die Wirtschaft des Landes als Blase anzusehen oder gar für 2010 eine Bauchlandung vorherzusagen. Doch scheint dieses Urteil – bestenfalls – verfrüht.

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