中国泡沫的错觉

北京 ——

在今年春节前夜,中国人民银行( PBC )宣布 —— 一个月之内的第二次 —— 提高银行存款准备金率 50 基点,达到 16.5% ,这个消息使得市场颇感意外。此前不久,为了防止地方政府通过地方国有企业过度负债,同时给过热的房产市场降温,中国政府调低了第二套住房的房贷比例,提高了房产开发商的资本充足准备率。

近期,中国新一轮货币市场紧缩反映出政府对货币流动性泛滥的日益担忧。 2009 年, M2 货币供应量(反映通胀的关键指数)年增幅为 27% ,信贷增幅 34% 2010 1 月,尽管对信贷采取了严格的“行政控制”手段,(人民银行实际上对商业银行采取了信贷额度限额),银行贷款的年增幅还达到 29% 。这还是在前一年强劲增长的基础上的增幅。不过,通胀维持较低水平,达到 1.5% 。近几个月有所上升。在国内一些主要城市的房价也在飙升。

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