La trampa del dinero especulativo

SHANGHAI – En la reciente crisis financiera se ha visto el ascenso de Asia como potencia económica –de hecho, como un motor clave del crecimiento global. En aproximadamente cinco años, la economía en conjunto de Asia podría ser igual de grande que la de los Estados Unidos y la de la Unión Europea combinadas.

En efecto, mientras que Asia crece, los países ricos industriales del antiguo G-7 han estado dirigiéndose hacia una trampa de liquidez. A medida que la actual recesión agota los instrumentos tradicionales de política monetaria, los bancos centrales están optando por nuevas rondas de facilitación cuantitativa (FC). Además, dado que los inversionistas están buscando mayores rendimientos, aumentar la FC –especialmente de los Estados Unidos- orientará el dinero especulativo (flujos de cartera de corto plazo) hacia los mercados de las economías emergentes con altos rendimientos, lo que podría crear peligrosas burbujas de activos en Asia, América Latina y otros lugares.

La Reserva Federal estadounidense y la administración Obama siguen estando retóricamente aferradas a mantener un “dólar fuerte.” Sin embargo, es la debilidad del dólar la que ha provocado un aumento en las ganancias corporativas de los Estados Unidos desde que la crisis estalló impulsando el índice Promedio Industrial Dow Jones por arriba de los 11,000 puntos por primera desde mayo. A principios de 2002, el dólar ha caído en un tercio respecto de las divisas principales, y este descenso se ha intensificado recientemente.

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