Pedro Molina

The Hidden Future of the US Economy

Just how bad is the outlook for the US economy? Unfortunately, you cannot tell from the forecasts, though many economists are raising their odds on a double-dip recession as government stimulus programs end and spending declines.

CAMBRIDGE – Just how bad is the outlook for the United States’ economy? Unfortunately, you cannot tell from the forecasts.

These days, it is common to read forecasts predicting that the US economy will grow at a 3% annual rate in the coming year. But just what does that mean?

The forecaster is not saying that he or she is confident that growth will be exactly 3%. Every forecaster recognizes that the actual growth rate may be higher or lower than the number that he states. There is a distribution of possible growth rates, and the forecaster is telling us just one of the outcomes that he can contemplate.

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