Dos falacias sobre el dólar

CAMBRIDGE – Las actuales políticas fiscal y monetaria de Estados Unidos son insostenibles. La relación entre la deuda neta gubernamental y el PBI de EE. UU. se ha duplicado en los últimos cinco años y se estima que esa proporción será mayor dentro de una década, incluso si la economía logra recuperarse completamente y las tasas de interés vuelven a un rango normal. Una población envejecida en EE. UU. causará que los beneficios de la seguridad social aumenten rápidamente, impulsará la deuda por encima del 100 % del PBI y acelerará su tasa de crecimiento. Si bien la Reserva Federal y acreedores extranjeros como China actualmente están financiando ese aumento, su voluntad para ello no es ilimitada.

De igual manera, la política de la Fed de compras de activos a gran escala ha aumentado el exceso de reservas de los bancos comerciales hasta niveles sin precedentes (se acercan a $2 billones), y ha impulsado la tasa de interés real de los bonos del tesoro a diez años hasta un nivel negativo inaudito. La Fed lo reconoce, esto debe detenerse y revertirse.

Si bien la evolución futura de estos desequilibrios no es clara, el resultado podría eventualmente ser un brusco aumento de las tasas de interés de largo plazo y una importante caída en el valor del dólar, impulsados principalmente por la reticencia de los inversores extranjeros a continuar ampliando sus tenencias de deuda estadounidense. Los inversores estadounidenses, temiendo que se reviertan las posiciones fiscales y monetarias, pueden contribuir a estos cambios al intentar desplazar sus carteras de activos a otros países.

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