两大美元谬误

美国剑桥—美国当前的财政和货币政策是不可持续的。过去五年来,美国政府净债务占GDP的比重翻了一番,十年后预计比现在更高,即使经济完全复苏,利率进入常态范围也是如此。老化的美国人口将导致社会福利迅速增加,时债务超过GDP的100%,并加速债务增长率。尽管美联储和中国等外国债权人现在还能为债务增加提供资金,但它们的意愿并不是无限的。

类似地,美联储大规模购买资产的政策增加了商业银行的超额储备,达到了前所未有的水平(近2万亿美元),也把10年期国债的真实利率前所未有地压到了负水平。美联储承认,这一趋势必须停止并逆转。

尽管这些失衡的未来走势尚不明朗,但结果最终或是长期利率飙升和美元价值暴跌,其主要原因在于外国投资者不再愿意继续扩大美国债务持有量。由于担心财政和货币立场的放松,美国投资者可能会寻求将资产配置到别的国家,从而加速这一变局。

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