Paul Lachine

المأساة الإغريقية، الفصل الثاني

شيكاغو ــ تتألف المأساة الإغريقية عادة من ثلاثة فصول. الفصل الأول يهيئ المسرح. وفي الفصل الثاني تبلغ الحبكة أوجها. وإذا تحدثنا عن اليونان اليوم، فإن فرض الخسائر "الطوعية" على دائني البلاد من القطاع الخاص لا يمثل سوى نهاية البداية. أما المأساة الحقيقية فلم تتكشف بعد.

في ظاهر الأمر، قد يبدو لنا أن الترتيب "الطوعي" مع الدائنين كان نجاحاً كبيرا. فقد انخفض حجم الدين الأجنبي المستحق على اليونان بما يزيد على 100 مليار يورو (130 مليار دولار). فقد قدم شركاء اليونان الأوروبيون 130 مليار يورو في هيئة قروض جديدة. ونتيجة لهذا تجنبت اليونان إفلاساً عاماً للبنوك، وتمكنت من الاستمرار في دفع رواتب موظفيها العموميين.

ولكن على الرغم من هذه النتائج التي أعلِن عنها بصخب، فإن الواقع أقسى من هذا كثيرا. فحتى بعد الاتفاق الأخير، تظل نسبة الديون اليونانية 120% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي للعام الماضي. وفي ظل التوقعات بهبوط الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بنسبة 7% هذا العام إلى جانب العجز المستمر، فإن نسبة الدين قد تتجاوز 130% قبل أن تستقر عند مستوى 120% في عام 2020.

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