Velké zklidnění

Je tomu už 20 let od chvíle, kdy se předsedou americké Federální rezervní banky stal Alan Greenspan. Roky, jež od té doby uplynuly, přinesly ze všech generací nejrychlejší globální tempo růstu průměrných výdělků a rovněž pozoruhodně málo případů vzplanutí deflace způsobující masovou nezaměstnanost či inflace ničící majetek. Za skutečné makroekonomické katastrofy rozsahu, jenž byl v předchozích desetiletích k uzoufání běžný, se počítají pouze ztracená dekáda a půl Japonska a těžkosti přechodu od komunismu.

Když Alan Greenspan nastupoval do úřadu, toto „velké zklidnění“ se neočekávalo. Americká fiskální politika byla tehdy naprosto vyšinutá – mnohem víc než v současnosti.

Indie se zdála být po uši ve stagnaci. Čína sice rostla, ale střední životní úrovně zjevně nebyly vyšší než v dobách takzvaných „zlatých let“ Číny na počátku 50. let, po přerozdělení půdy, ale ještě před tím, než násilná kolektivizace proměnila rolníky v nevolníky. Evropská nezaměstnanost krátce předtím opět výrazně povyskočila a „socialistické“ státy se s racionálním hospodářským rozvojem neslučovaly natolik, že jejich politické systémy dva roky nato padly. Latinská Amerika se topila ve své vlastní ztracené dekádě, poté co na počátku 80. let propukla krize zadluženosti.

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