大稳定

格林斯潘担任美联储主席以来已经过去了二十个年头。从那时起世界经历了有史以来最快的全球平均收入增长速度,同时引发大规模失业的通货紧缩或摧毁财富的通货膨胀很少爆发。真正能称得上与几十年前令人沮丧地普遍的宏观经济灾难相提并论的大概只有日本失去的15年以及从共产主义的转变所带来的艰难。

这种“大稳定”是格林斯潘就职时所未曾料想到的。当时美国的财政政策处于一片混乱之中,比现在要严重得多。

印度似乎陷入了停顿的泥潭中。中国正在成长,但是其中间生活水准并没有明显超越中国在二十世纪五十年代早期土地重新分配之后到强制的集体化把农民变成了农奴的那段所谓的“黄金十年”时的生活水准。欧洲的失业率刚刚经历了又一次大幅上扬,而“社会主义”国家与理性经济发展是如此不相容以致它们的政治体系在两年后将崩溃。拉丁美洲在二十世纪八十年代初叶的债务危机后正陷入它自己失去的十年中。

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