最大的错觉

摆放在我办公室书架上最令人伤感的著作是诺曼·安格尔的一部老书,出版于近一个世纪前,书名是《最大的错觉:研究国家军事实力与经济社会发展状况之间的联系》。这部著作中,安格尔试图说明武力征服是多么荒诞。

安格尔的论据很简单:在所有迁延日久的现代工业战争中,人人都是输家。战败的一方输得最惨,即便战胜方状况也远逊于和平时期。很多父亲、儿子和丈夫抛尸荒野,母亲、妻子和女儿也未能例外。无数的财富烟消云散,建筑变成一片废墟。财产充公破坏了现代工业繁荣赖以存在的法治基础。即便是战胜的一方,顶多就以小输家而非大输家来聊以自慰。现代工业战争正如1982年电影《战争游戏》中计算机所说的那样,是一场非常独特的游戏:"唯一的获胜方法就是不要开始。"

就在安格尔撰写著作的同时,有人主张战争是促进国家繁荣的重要手段,商业繁荣是军事力量结出的硕果。令安格尔倍感困惑的是:一次大战前泛德联盟的政治家为什么会认定德国的繁荣需要庞大的军事力量作后盾,而军力的薄弱并未影响到挪威、丹麦或荷兰等国保持繁荣昌盛。他渴望理性治政时代的到来,让所有的首相和外相都认识到:无论引起纷争的事件多么重要,各国之间的联合仲裁永远是比战争更好的解决方法。

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