Paul Lachine

Vamos deixá-la sangrar?

BERKELEY – Nos 12 anos da Grande Depressão - entre o colapso financeiro na bolsa de valores de 1929 e a mobilização da América para a Segunda Guerra Mundial - a produção nos Estados Unidos perfez uma média de cerca de 15% abaixo da tendência pré-depressão, significando um défice total no rendimento igual a 1,8 anos do PIB. Hoje, mesmo se a produção dos Estados Unidos regressar ao seu potencial rendimento com uma inflação estável, em 2017 - um enorme “se”- os EUA ficarão sujeitos a um défice no rendimento equivalente a 60% do PIB de um ano.

Na verdade, as perdas resultantes daquilo a que tenho vindo a chamar de “Depressão Menor” não irão certamente acabar em 2017. Não há nenhuma moral equivalente à da guerra no horizonte, para atrair os EUA em direcção a um enorme crescimento repentino e apagar a sombra projectada pelo declínio; e quando eu pego nos valores actuais e projecto o baixo crescimento tendencial da economia dos EUA no futuro, não consigo calcular o valor actual da perda adicional a menos de 100% da produção de um ano dos nossos dias - para um custo total de 1,6 anos do PIB. O dano é, portanto, quase igual ao da Grande Depressão - e igualmente doloroso, ainda que hoje o PIB real da América seja 12 vezes superior ao de 1929.

Quando eu falo com os meus amigos na administração Obama, eles defendem-se e defendem o resultado macroeconómico a longo prazo nos EUA, salientando que o resto do mundo desenvolvido está a fazer muito pior. Eles estão certos. A Europa não se importava nada de ter os problemas da América.

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