Paul Lachine

Ancora sangue e lacrime?

BERKELEY – Nei 12 anni di Grande Depressione – tra il crollo del mercato azionario del 1929 e la mobilitazione dell’America per la Seconda Guerra mondiale – la produzione negli Stati Uniti ha registrato una media dell’15% più bassa rispetto al trend precedente la depressione, che si traduce in un calo di produzione totale pari a 1,8 anni di Pil. Oggi, anche se la produzione americana ritornerà al suo potenziale produttivo legato all’inflazione stabile entro il 2017 – un grande “se” – gli Usa avranno evidenziato una diminuzione di produzione equivalente al 60% del Pil di un anno.

Le perdite provenienti da quella che chiamiamo “Depressione minore” non saranno quasi certamente finite nel 2017. Non c’è equivalente morale di guerra all’orizzonte che trascini gli Usa in un potente boom e cancelli l’ombra gettata dalla recessione economica; e quando prendo i valori attuali e proietto nel futuro la crescita di basso trend dell’economia americana, non posso calcolare l’attuale valore della perdita aggiuntiva a meno del 100% della produzione di un anno di oggi – per un costo totale di 1,6 anni di Pil. I danni sono quindi quasi pari a quella della Grande Depressione, ed equamente dolorosi, anche se il Pil reale americano oggi è 12 volte superiore a quello del 1929.

I miei colleghi che lavorano nell’amministrazione Obama difendono se stessi e i risultati macroeconomici di lungo termine degli Stati Uniti facendo presente che il resto del mondo sviluppato sta andando di gran lunga peggio. Vero. L’Europa vorrebbe disperatamente avere i problemi dell’America.

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