Paul Lachine

Une nouvelle saignée ?

BERKELEY – Au cours des douze années de la Grande Dépression, entre le krach boursier de 1929 et la mobilisation des États-Unis dans la Deuxième Guerre mondiale, la production aux Etats-Unis se situait en moyenne autour de 15% en-deçà de la tendance d'avant la Dépression, ce qui implique un déficit total égal à 1,8 an de PIB. Aujourd'hui, même si la production des États-Unis revient à son potentiel à inflation stable en 2017 (ce qui est loin d'être certain), les États-Unis auront subi un manque à gagner équivalent à 60% du PIB annuel.

En fait les pertes de ce que j'ai appelé la « Petite Dépression » ne seront certainement pas terminées en 2017. Il n'y a pas d'équivalent moral à la guerre pour emporter les États-Unis dans une croissance forte et effacer l'ombre portée de la récession. Quand je prends les valeurs actuelles et que je projette la croissance à tendance inférieure de l'économie américaine dans l'avenir, je ne peux pas compter la valeur actualisée de la perte supplémentaire à moins de 100% du résultat annuel d'aujourd'hui, pour un coût total de 1,6 années de PIB. Les dégâts sont donc presque égaux à ceux de la Grande Dépression et tout aussi douloureux, même si le PIB réel actuel des États-Unis est 12 fois supérieur à ce qu'il était en 1929.

Quand je parle à mes amis de l'administration Obama, ils se défendent et défendent le résultat macroéconomique à long terme des États-Unis en soulignant que le reste du monde développé fait bien pire. Ils ont raison. L'Europe souhaite désespérément avoir les problèmes des États-Unis.

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