Paul Lachine

放血?

伯克利—在大萧条的十二年中——从1929年股市崩盘到美国二战动员——美国年均生产比萧条前趋势低了约15%,总产出缺口相当于1.8年的GDP。如今,即便美国的生产在2017年回到稳定通胀产出潜力水平——“即便”二字醒目——美国仍有相当于一年GDP六成的产出缺口。

事实上,我一直称之为“小萧条”的损失几乎肯定不会在2017年停下来。没有可堪与战争相提并论的道德等价物能把美国送入强力繁荣,击散衰退阴云;当我计算现值、预测美国经济低于趋势增长的未来时,我无法考虑新增损失现值低于如今一整年产出的情形——总成本为1.6年的GDP。因此,其伤害与大萧条等量齐观——其带来的痛苦亦然,即使如今美国真实GDP是1929年的13倍。

我把这告诉了我在奥巴马政府中的朋友,他们为自己和美国长期宏观经济结果辩解时指出,其他发达国家比美国差远了。他们是对的。欧洲巴不得自己的问题和美国一样轻。

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